Farmland prices have increased for the first time since 2013, driven by by strong commodity prices and low interest rates. Surveys suggest the outlook is very bright

Summary

  • High quality Iowa farmland now exceeds $10,000 per acre, up by 7.5% over the past six months.
  • Chicago Fed’s AgLetter covering farmland outlook is “the rosiest in years”
  • Farmer optimism is driven by higher commodity prices and low interest rates.
Sun shines over farmland

Iowa Farmland Survey Strengthened

Iowa farmland prices increased approximately 8% over the past six months through March 2021, as measured by the Iowa Chapter of the Realtors Land Institute (“RLI Iowa”) March survey. The report cited higher…


Summary

  • Corn is due for a sharp rally, and we will likely see $8–10 per bushel between 2021–2023
  • Corn has been in a deep bear market since 2013… Eight long years. Core supply and demand fundamentals are now improving.
  • Global commodity prices have started to break out of a multi-year range. Drivers include: 1. the demand recovery as the pandemic moderates, 2. supply disruptions due shortages, and 3. fiscal stimulus injected by governments worldwide. A rising tide lifts all boats.
  • Legendary commodity investor Jim Rogers has often said that major commodity cycles tend to be about every 20 years. …

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